Impact of Population Growth on CO₂ Emissions in Export-Driven Global Transport: A 30-Country Analysis (2011-2020)

Abstract

This study explores the complex relationship between population growth and CO2 emissions in an export-driven sector focused on global transportation. It addresses a gap in the existing literature by how demographic trends may influence the environmental impact of international trade. By using a robust dataset of 30 countries from 2011-2020. Advanced methods, including the CIPS, CADF Kao Test, Pedroni Test, and GMM tests, were applied to examine the relationships among trade activities, population growth, and CO2 emissions. Results show that export activity can significantly increase CO2 emissions through increased energy consumption associated with the production and transportation of goods. Further, population growth has been strengthened by increased demand for transportation services, leading to higher CO2 emissions. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of including demographic factors in the formulation of sustainable transportation policies. Policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders can develop more effective strategies to reduce transportation's carbon footprint and promote environmental sustainability by understanding the moderating role of population growth. Finally, it provides valuable insights into the complex connections among trade, population growth, and environmental impact, which contribute to the broader discussion of sustainable development and climate change mitigation.